What Is a Good EV Percentage in Sports Betting? Feed Data Compared
According to OddsFantasy's value-bet feed, the median listed EV was 2.36% against Pinnacle's no-vig benchmark between 16–21 October 2026; 25% of listings showed at least 3.69% and 10% at least 5.81%. That makes 2–3% a middle-of-the-feed reference point, while 5% was a more selective filter—not evidence of profits earned.
OddsFantasy's value-bet feed lists a pre-match value bet when a bookmaker or Polymarket offers better odds than Pinnacle's no-vig odds for the same outcome. Between 16–21 October 2026, UTC, it covered 1xBet, BC.Game, BetPawa, Cloudbet, Gamdom, Kalshi, Matchbook, Pinnacle, Polymarket, Rollbit, SBOBET, Smarkets, SportyBet, Stake, Vave and Vbet. The figures describe feed listings, with EV measured as expected return per unit staked at the offered odds before fees. Listing duration runs from first appearance to removal; because the feed refreshes every few minutes, very short lifetimes are rounded up to the next refresh.
An EV of 2–3% was near the middle of the listed opportunities, rather than unusually high, in this measurement period. OddsFantasy's feed placed 27% (8,744) of listings in the 2–3% band between 16–21 October 2026. Another 36% (11,510) fell in the 1–2% band, compared with 21% (6,814) in the 3–5% band.
The median and upper-percentile cutoffs answer different questions. The 2.36% median locates the middle listing; the 3.69% and 5.81% cutoffs identify the upper quarter and upper tenth. They do not describe the minimum and maximum EV in the feed. If the concept is new, start with what a value bet means: a favourable price relative to an estimated fair probability, not a prediction that the next selection wins.
Higher minimum-EV filters sharply reduced the share of listings available for review. OddsFantasy's feed recorded the following minimum-threshold counts between 16–21 October 2026:
These thresholds are nested: a listing at 10% also qualifies at 5%, 3% and 2%. Do not add the counts together. A 2% filter retained a majority of the feed, a 3% filter retained a little over a third, and a 5% filter narrowed the selection substantially. A 10% filter concentrated attention on a small upper slice rather than the typical listed edge.
The practical choice is how much selection you want to review, not which percentage sounds most impressive. A higher cutoff provides a stronger displayed price difference, but it does not validate the market mapping, probability estimate or executable price. Before acting on an unusually large figure, check that the outcome, handicap or total, and settlement conditions match the benchmark contract.
EV per unit staked equals the estimated fair probability multiplied by the offered decimal odds, minus one. As PinnWire's EV calculation guide explains, the calculation needs a fair probability and a current offered price for the exact same betting contract. Multiply the result by 100 to express it as a percentage.
In a worked example, not a live listing, a fair probability of 0.50 and offered decimal odds of 2.10 produce 0.50 × 2.10 − 1 = 0.05, or 5% EV. At a 100-unit stake, the model estimates an average profit of five units across many equivalent opportunities. An individual bet can still lose the entire 100-unit stake.
Use the expected value calculator to test the arithmetic. Keep the probability input separate from the price input: a correct calculation can still give a misleading result if its probability assumption is wrong or its offered odds are no longer available. The displayed percentage is only as useful as those inputs.
Polymarket needs a fee-aware threshold because a positive displayed edge can disappear after trading costs. OddsFantasy's feed listed 6,039 Polymarket value bets (19%) between 16–21 October 2026, with a median EV of 1.89%; 64% still had positive EV after Polymarket's sports taker fee of 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share.
That fee is a per-share amount, not a flat percentage-point deduction from displayed EV. Calculate the cost at the intended entry price, then reassess the edge. Execution also matters: if the available price moves, recalculate using the price you can actually take. A minimum-EV filter is therefore a screening rule, not a substitute for checking the resulting trade.
No: EV measures the relationship between probability and price, not the probability of winning by itself. OddsFantasy's feed had median decimal odds of 1.73 between 16–21 October 2026. Its odds distribution was 1.01–1.5: 30%; 1.5–2: 41%; 2–3: 23%; 3–5: 5.7%; and 5 or more: 0.1%.
Two bets can have the same EV while having very different chances of winning and different payout sizes. For that reason, review an odds range alongside an EV range rather than treating all 5% listings as interchangeable. Nor does a 5% EV figure tell you to stake 5% of your bankroll: estimated value and stake sizing are separate decisions.
The median listing lasted 16 minutes among the 32,031 value bets that left OddsFantasy's feed between 16–21 October 2026. Of those listings, 27% were gone within 5 minutes, 47% within 15 minutes, and 26% stayed listed for an hour or more. These measurements describe feed visibility, not how long any particular user could obtain a fill.
The same feed's median first appearance was 11.7 hours before kickoff; 18% appeared in the final hour and 23% more than two days ahead. There was no single universal execution window. Recheck the price when opening a listing, rather than assuming that an alert's EV remains current or waiting until kickoff to review pre-match opportunities.
Use EV to narrow the review queue, then apply contract, price and execution checks before committing a stake. The observed thresholds give a practical way to understand what each filter excludes:
The OddsFantasy positive EV finder lists pre-match opportunities against Pinnacle's no-vig odds. On Polymarket, automation can use minimum and maximum EV, odds range, sports, maximum spread, minimum volume and stake per market. It enters with a resting limit order by default; optional market entry skips a bet if its price moves beyond the slippage limit. Those controls help implement a defined rule, but do not establish that the rule is profitable.
At sportsbooks, OddsFantasy finds and alerts value bets; users place them themselves. Telegram value-bet alerts are available on the Classic Telegram plan, while Premium Telegram adds arbitrage alerts. Compare the plans according to the workflow you need, rather than assuming that more alerts mean more executable value.
No: listed EV measures an estimated price advantage, whereas profitability requires evidence from executed bets and results. The American Journal of Management study on weak-form efficiency found sports betting markets generally efficient and did not find statistically significant long-term profits from the odds-based strategies it examined. That research provides context; it does not test these feed listings.
Use 2.36% as the observed median and 5% as a selective threshold in this dataset—not as a performance target. To evaluate a strategy beyond its finder settings, distinguish quoted EV from entry prices, costs and settled outcomes. Our guide to judging positive-EV betting results over time explains that next step.
A 2–3% EV was near the middle of OddsFantasy's value-bet feed between 16–21 October 2026: the median was 2.36%, while 25% of listings showed at least 3.69% and 10% at least 5.81%. These are useful comparison points, not proof that a particular bet or strategy will be profitable.
Yes, relative to this feed: only 14% (4,441) of OddsFantasy's value-bet listings reached at least 5% EV between 16–21 October 2026. It was a selective threshold rather than a typical listed edge.
Bets with at least 10% EV accounted for 2.7% (857) of OddsFantasy's value-bet feed between 16–21 October 2026. A large displayed edge still requires checks of the matching contract, current price and execution costs.
Not always: 64% of the 6,039 Polymarket value bets in OddsFantasy's feed between 16–21 October 2026 retained positive EV after the sports taker fee. Their median displayed EV before fees was 1.89%.
No: 5% EV describes estimated return per unit staked, not win probability. For example, a fair probability of 50% and decimal odds of 2.10 produce 5% EV, even though the estimated chance of winning is 50%.
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