BTTS Strategy: Buy Before Kickoff, Sell the First Goal

Most BTTS strategies are about picking matches and then sitting on the bet for ninety minutes. Traders use the market differently. Both Teams to Score needs two goals, one from each side, and the first one does half the job: the moment it goes in, the price jumps, whichever team scored. This BTTS strategy buys Yes before kickoff, sells into that jump, and gets out by the half-hour if the goal doesn't come. This guide shows why the price moves that way, what the losing trade looks like, which matches to pick, and how to run it automatically on Polymarket with OddsFantasy, by building it yourself or by loading the ready-made strategy file.

How does Both Teams to Score work on Polymarket?

Polymarket lists a Both Teams to Score market on most football matches. A Yes share pays $1 if both teams score in normal time (1-1, 2-1, 3-2), and nothing if either side fails to (1-0, 0-0).

The price is the market's probability. Between two attacking teams, Yes costs about 55¢: a 55% chance, or decimal odds of 1.82. BTTS usually trades around 1.90 on the exchanges, so a match in the 1.60-1.95 range is one the market already rates as more likely than not. The implied probability guide shows the conversion both ways.

Why does the first goal move BTTS so much?

Before kickoff, Yes needs two things: the home team to score and the away team to score. Once one of them has, it needs only the other. The price jumps to that one remaining chance, so any first goal lifts it.

Take a match at 55¢ with both teams expected to score about 1.35 goals each. The price at 0-0, and the price right after a first goal:

• Kickoff: 55¢ at 0-0, 74¢ after a goal
• 12th minute: 48¢ at 0-0, 69¢ after a goal
• 20th minute: 42¢ at 0-0, 65¢ after a goal
• 30th minute: 35¢ at 0-0, 59¢ after a goal
• 33rd minute: 33¢ at 0-0, 57.5¢ after a goal

Twelve minutes in, still 0-0, Yes has slipped to 48¢. A goal goes in and it jumps to 69¢ in seconds, about +45%. The momentum exit sells on that jump: $5 bought at 55¢ comes back as about $6.27.

What does a losing trade look like?

A quiet start. While it stays 0-0, both teams still need a goal and every minute makes that less likely, so the price slides: 48¢ at 12', 42¢ at 20', 35¢ by the half-hour. At 30 minutes the time close sells what's left, and $5 comes back as about $3.21.

The time close is placed where the trade stops paying. A goal still lifts BTTS later in the match, but in this example a first goal after about the 33rd minute only takes the price to 57.5¢ or less, which is what you paid plus the momentum exit's 2.5¢ floor. By the half-hour the trade has worked, or it isn't going to, so there's no stop-loss: the time close is the stop. About six in ten matches like this one have a goal by the 30th minute.

Which matches suit the BTTS strategy?

Which team scores first matters. The jump is bigger when the less likely scorer gets the goal, because the remaining team is the one more likely to score. In a one-sided match priced at the same 55¢, at 12' and 0-0:

• the favourite scores: BTTS goes from 48¢ to 58¢, barely past the break-even floor;
• the underdog scores: BTTS goes from 48¢ to 83¢.

In a one-sided game the likeliest first goal is the favourite's, and it pays the least. So tick evenly matched games where both sides attack and concede: weak defences, open styles, teams with a high BTTS rate home and away. Check the line-ups, too; the schedule starts 45 minutes before kickoff for that reason. The bot filters on price; you choose which matches it watches. (The first half goals strategy and the Over 2.5 goals strategy trade goals on the totals markets instead.)

The strategy settings

Entry

• Market: Regular Time · Both Teams to Score · Yes
• Odds: Between 1.60 and 1.95
• Spread: Below 0.05
• Volume traded: Above $100
• Liquidity: Above $100
• Market structure: Off
• Stake: $5 per match

Schedule

• Starts: 45 minutes before kickoff
• Checks: Every 5 minutes
• Stops: At kickoff (Run in live off)

Exit

• Momentum exit: Sells when the price jumps 15% or more within a few seconds, once the spread is at 0.05 or less (waits up to 10 seconds), only above break-even
• Time close: 30 minutes after kickoff
• Stop-loss: Off: the time close is the stop
• Merge hedged positions: On (only matters if you also hold No shares)

Option 1: build it yourself

1. Open the trading terminal and turn on semi-auto entries with the switch next to Sort by.
2. Sort by Volume and tick the football matches you want to trade.
3. Click the robot button to open Auto entries, then Create or update a preset.
4. On Market, name the preset BTTS Goal Trade and choose the Regular Time scoreboard, the Both Teams to Score market and the Yes outcome.
5. On Filters, set odds between 1.6 and 1.95, spread below 0.05, volume above 100 and liquidity above 100.
6. On Execution, set the stake to $5 and switch the market structure filters off (Bullish and Neutral start switched on).
7. Review and Save preset.
8. Go to Positions → Auto exits → Create or update a preset. Name it and link it to the BTTS Goal Trade entry preset.
9. On Risk, leave Close at max drawdown off.
10. On Pre-match, switch off Limit close (it starts on). On Live, switch off Limit close, switch on Time close at 30:00, switch on Momentum exit at 15% with a maximum spread of 0.05 and a wait of 00:10, and switch on Merge hedged positions after kickoff (it starts off).
11. Save, then Run a preset and Start monitor.
12. Back in Auto entries, choose Run or schedule a preset, pick BTTS Goal Trade and Preview matches. Click Add all previewed matches: matches that don't pass yet stay scheduled and are re-checked on every refresh.
13. On Timing, start 00:45:00 before kickoff, stop at 00:00, refresh every 05:00, and leave Run in live off.
14. Confirm and Start schedule.

Option 2: load the strategy file

The strategy file holds the entry preset, the exit preset and the schedule in one download.

1. Download the strategy file from this page, or click Open in OddsFantasy to load it directly.
2. Turn on semi-auto entries and tick your matches.
3. Open Auto entries → Run or schedule a preset → Upload strategy file.
4. OddsFantasy saves both presets, loads the schedule, previews your matches and takes you to Confirm. Matches that don't pass yet are added as pending and re-checked before entry, and the auto exit is set to start with the schedule.
5. Click Start schedule.

Trade responsibly

Only stake what you can afford, and check that Polymarket is available where you live.