First Half Goals Strategy: Automate Over 0.5 on Polymarket

The first half goals strategy is a classic of exchange football trading: back Over 0.5 goals in the first half, but don't take the kickoff price. While the score stays 0-0, the odds climb minute by minute, so traders wait for the drift and buy at a better price, then need just one goal before half time. This guide explains why the odds move that way, what a quiet half costs, and how to run the whole trade automatically on Polymarket with OddsFantasy, either by building it yourself or by loading the ready-made strategy file.

How does the first-half goals market work on Polymarket?

Polymarket lists a first-half goals market on most big football matches. An Over 0.5 share pays $1 if anyone scores before half time, and nothing if the first half ends 0-0.

The price is the market's probability. In an open match, Over 0.5 costs about 71¢ at kickoff: a 71% chance of a first-half goal, or decimal odds of 1.40. The implied probability guide shows the conversion both ways.

Why do the odds climb while the half stays 0-0?

Every minute without a goal leaves less time for one, so the Over 0.5 price slides and its odds rise. In an open match:

• 0': 71¢ · 1.40
• 16': 55¢ · 1.80
• 20': 50¢ · 2.00
• 26': 40¢ · 2.50
• 35': 25¢ · 4.00

That's the window the strategy buys in: odds between 1.80 and 2.50, roughly the 16th to the 26th minute. It only exists at 0-0. Before kickoff the odds are shorter, and after a goal they collapse to about 1.01, so the odds window does the job of a score filter. In a match with fewer expected goals, the odds can already be in the window at kickoff, and then the bot buys before the start.

What happens when a goal goes in?

Over 0.5 in the first half is won the moment anyone scores, so the price jumps to about 97-99¢. Buy at 50¢ in the 20th minute, and a goal in the 26th takes the price from 41¢ to 97¢. The momentum exit sells on that jump: $5 becomes about $9.70.

What does a losing trade look like?

A quiet half. With no goal, the price keeps sliding and halves by about the 35th minute, where the 50% stop-loss sells at 25¢: half the stake is gone, and the bot moves on.

So match selection matters: pick matches that start fast, with teams that score early and open, attacking games, and skip the cagey ones. The bot only filters on price; you choose which matches it watches. (The Over 2.5 goals strategy and lay the draw hunt goals across the whole match.)

The strategy settings

Entry

• Market: First Half · Total 0.5 · Over
• Odds: Between 1.80 and 2.50
• Spread: Below 0.05
• Volume traded: Above $100
• Liquidity: Above $100
• Market structure: Off
• Stake: $5 per match

Schedule

• Starts: 10 minutes before kickoff
• Checks: Every 2 minutes
• In play: Run in live on: keeps buying after kickoff

Exit

• Momentum exit: Sells when the price jumps 20% or more within a few seconds, once the spread is at 0.05 or less (waits up to 10 seconds), only above break-even
• Stop-loss: Sells at −50%, market order, spread at 0.05 or less for 10 seconds, after kickoff
• Merge hedged positions: On (only matters if you also hold Under shares)

Option 1: build it yourself

1. Open the trading terminal and turn on semi-auto entries with the switch next to Sort by.
2. Tick the football matches you want to trade (sort by Volume to see the busiest first).
3. Click the robot button to open Auto entries, then Create or update a preset.
4. On Market, name the preset First Half Goals and choose the First Half scoreboard, Total, line 0.5 and the Over outcome.
5. On Filters, set odds between 1.8 and 2.5, spread below 0.05, volume above 100 and liquidity above 100.
6. On Execution, set the stake to $5 and switch the market structure filters off (Bullish and Neutral start switched on).
7. Review and Save preset.
8. Go to Positions → Auto exits → Create or update a preset. Name it and link it to the First Half Goals entry preset.
9. On Risk, switch on Close at max drawdown: 50%, market order, maximum spread 0.05 for 00:10, with Live on.
10. On Pre-match, switch off Limit close (it starts on). On Live, switch off Limit close, switch on Momentum exit at 20% with a maximum spread of 0.05 and a wait of 00:10, and keep Merge hedged positions after kickoff on.
11. Save, then Run a preset and Start monitor.
12. Back in Auto entries, choose Run or schedule a preset, pick First Half Goals and Preview matches. Before kickoff most matches won't pass yet: click Add all previewed matches, and the schedule re-checks each one on every refresh.
13. On Timing, start 00:10:00 before kickoff, stop at 00:00, refresh every 02:00, and tick Run in live (Limit quote off).
14. Confirm and Start schedule.

Option 2: load the strategy file

The strategy file holds the entry preset, the exit preset and the schedule in one download.

1. Download the strategy file from this page, or click Open in OddsFantasy to load it directly.
2. Turn on semi-auto entries and tick your matches.
3. Open Auto entries → Run or schedule a preset → Upload strategy file.
4. OddsFantasy saves both presets, loads the schedule, previews your matches and takes you to Confirm. Matches that don't pass yet are added as pending and re-checked before entry, and the auto exit is set to start with the schedule.
5. Click Start schedule.

Trade responsibly

Only stake what you can afford, and check that Polymarket is available where you live.