Over 0.5 Goals Strategy: Wait for the Second Half

Over 0.5 goals is the simplest bet in football: at least one goal in the match. It's also one of the most misused. Before kickoff it costs about 95¢ on Polymarket, so a win makes 5¢ and a goalless match costs 95¢. While a match stays goalless, though, the clock pulls the price down, and the first goal still pays $1. This over 0.5 goals strategy waits for that moment: it watches your matches after kickoff, buys Over 0.5 only when a goalless match has pushed its odds to 1.30-1.50, holds until the goal, and sells through a stop-loss if the goal doesn't come. This guide explains the line from zero, walks through two real matches, and shows how to run it as a preset in OddsFantasy, built by hand or loaded from the strategy file.

What does Over 0.5 goals mean?

A total goals market is a bet on how many goals both teams score together, from kickoff to the final whistle (regular time). Half a goal can't happen, so Over 0.5 simply means at least one goal: any goal, by either team, at any minute. Under 0.5 wins only on a 0-0.

On Polymarket you buy shares. When the result is confirmed the market is settled: a winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing. So a share's price reads like a chance, and OddsFantasy also shows it as decimal odds ($1 ÷ price). 95¢ is odds of 1.05. The guide to betting odds explains the conversions.

Is Over 0.5 goals a safe bet before kickoff?

It's a fair bet that pays almost nothing. Across 5,265 Polymarket matches from August to October 2026, Over 0.5 cost 93¢ on average ten minutes before kickoff and won 94 times in a hundred. That's fair. The trouble is the payout:

• A goal: +5¢ a share (bought at 95¢).
• A 0-0: −95¢ a share.

One nil-nil wipes out the profit of about nineteen wins. Your stake, the money you put on each trade, matters more on this line than almost any other.

How does the clock move Over 0.5?

While a match stays goalless, Over 0.5 falls a little every minute, because there's less time left for a goal. The median Polymarket price at 0-0, over the same 5,265 matches:

• Kickoff: 94¢ · 94%
• Half-time: 82¢ · 80%
• 55th minute: 74¢ · 71%
• 60th minute: 70¢ · 67%
• 75th minute: 52¢ · 49%

The price stays fair all the way down: it roughly matches how often a goal really came. But the payout changes. The first goal makes Over 0.5 a winner at $1 whatever happens next, so a goal bought at 74¢ pays 26¢ instead of 5¢.

A real example: Liverpool v Manchester City

On 11 October 2026, Liverpool played Manchester City in the English Premier League. Real Polymarket trades on Over 0.5, on the match clock:

• Before kickoff: 95¢.
• Half-time, 0-0: 79¢.
• 55th minute, still 0-0: 74¢. Odds of about 1.35, inside the preset's window, so it buys.
• 65th minute, City score: 98¢, then $1.
• Full time, 0-3: every share bought at 74¢ paid $1, a gain of 26¢ a share.

The match without a goal: Cologne v Schalke

On 24 October 2026, Cologne played Schalke in the German Bundesliga:

• Before kickoff: 95¢. Half-time: 80¢.
• 55th minute, 0-0: 74¢, where the preset buys.
• 70th minute: 55¢.
• Around the 76th minute: below the 40% stop-loss at about 44¢, so the bot sells at about 43¢.
• Full time, 0-0: the shares paid nothing.

The stop turned a full loss into a loss of about 42%. A buyer at 95¢ before kickoff lost everything.

The Over 0.5 preset

Entry

• Market: Regular Time · Total · 0.5 · Over · the strategy's market
• Odds: between 1.30 and 1.50 (77¢-67¢) · in a normal match this only happens after kickoff, in a goalless match, usually around the 50th-60th minute
• Spread: below 0.03 · in-play books widen; the spread would eat the upside
• Volume / liquidity: above $1,000 / above $100 · real trading only
• Stake: $5 · small and the same every match
• Market structure: off · the clock drives the price

Exit

• Close at max drawdown: 40%, market order, spread ≤ 0.05 for 10 s, live · from 74¢ it sells at about 44¢, around the 75th minute of a goalless match
• Other exits: off, Merge hedged positions on · once the goal goes in, the trade has won

Schedule

• Window: from 10 min before kickoff, every 2 min, Run in live on · the entry happens after kickoff

When the goal comes, hold to the end: the exit monitor redeems the winning shares for $1 each automatically once the market settles, with no trading fee.

Build it yourself in OddsFantasy

1. Open the trading terminal, switch on semi-auto entries next to Sort by, sort by volume and tick your matches.
2. Click the robot button to open Auto entries, then Create or update a preset. Name it Over 0.5 Second Half and pick Regular Time, Total, line 0.5, Over.
3. On Filters, set the odds between 1.3 and 1.5, the spread below 0.03, the volume above 1,000 and the liquidity above 100. On Execution, set the stake to $5 and switch the market structure filters off. Save the preset.
4. Go to Positions, open Auto exits, then Create or update a preset. Give it the same name and link it to the entry preset. On Risk, switch on Close at max drawdown at 40% with a market order, a maximum spread of 0.05 for 10 seconds, and Live on. Leave the other exits off, switch on Merge hedged positions, save it, then Run a preset and Start monitor.
5. Back in Auto entries, choose Run or schedule a preset, pick Over 0.5 Second Half and preview your matches. Before kickoff none will pass, which is expected. Click Add all previewed matches: the schedule re-checks every match on each refresh.
6. On Timing, start 10 minutes before kickoff, refresh every 2 minutes, and switch Run in live on. Confirm, and Start schedule.

Or load the strategy file

Download the strategy file on this page. In the terminal, switch on semi-auto entries, tick your matches, open Auto entries, choose Run or schedule a preset and click Upload strategy file. OddsFantasy saves both presets, loads the schedule and previews your matches. It lands on Confirm, with matches that don't pass yet added as pending, and starts the auto exit alongside. Click Start schedule.

Which matches suit Over 0.5 in the second half?

The prices are fair, so the matches you tick are your edge. What a trader looks for:

• two teams that both need to win;
• an attacking side at home;
• a team that has to chase the game.

What to skip: matches where a draw suits both teams. Those are the ones that stay goalless.

Common mistakes

Buying Over 0.5 before kickoff. It feels like free money at odds of 1.05, but a win pays 5¢ and Cologne v Schalke took all 95¢. The same goal paid 26¢ a share at Liverpool v City, because it was bought at 74¢.

Switching the stop-loss off. Late goals happen, but every quiet minute makes them less likely. At Cologne v Schalke, hoping turned a 42% loss into a total one.

Ticking every match. Fair prices mean your edge comes from the matches you choose.

More in this series

This guide is part of the football totals presets series, one lesson for every goal line from Over 0.5 to Under 5.5. See the Over 1.5 goals strategy, the Over 2.5 goals strategy and the Under 4.5 goals strategy.

Trade responsibly

Prediction markets carry real risk: a share can go to zero. Only stake what you can afford to lose, you must be 18 or over, and check that Polymarket is available where you live.