Back the Favourite Football Strategy: Sell the First Goal

The back-the-favourite strategy buys the favourite to win before kickoff and sells the jump when they score first. On Polymarket a favourite at 56¢ is worth about 81¢ once it leads 1-0 after 20 minutes. The trade only works with an exit for every way the first half hour can go: sell the goal, get out at 30 minutes if nobody scores, and stop the loss if the underdog scores. This guide explains the price path behind each branch, the settings, and how to run it automatically on Polymarket with OddsFantasy, by building it yourself or loading the ready-made strategy file.

How does the favourite's price work on Polymarket?

Polymarket lists each team's win in a football match as its own Yes/No market (Money Line, Regular Time). A Yes share on the favourite pays $1 if they win in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and nothing on a draw or a loss.

The price is the market's probability. A favourite with about 1.65 expected goals against 0.85 for the underdog costs about 56¢ before kickoff: a 56% chance, or decimal odds of 1.78. The guide to betting odds shows how prices, percentages and decimal odds convert.

What happens in the first half hour?

One of three things, and each moves the favourite's price a different way.

• The favourite scores first. A 1-0 lead after 20 minutes lifts the price from about 51.5¢ to 81¢. That's the jump the strategy sells.
• Nobody scores. Every minute at 0-0 makes a favourite's win a little less likely, so the price slides: 56¢ at kickoff, about 51.5¢ at 20 minutes, 48.5¢ at 30.
• The underdog scores first. A goal against the favourite after 15 minutes drops the price from about 53¢ to 26¢.

These prices come from a goals model with the expected goals above; real matches move the same way, by amounts that depend on the two teams.

Why does the strategy need three exits?

Because the market prices the favourite fairly. Buying it and holding is just a bet on the result. The trade is in deciding, before kickoff, what to do in each branch:

• Momentum exit (+15%): a favourite goal moves the price far more than 15% in seconds (51.5¢ to 81¢ is +57%), so the momentum exit sells right after the goal, and only above break-even plus 2.5¢.
• Time close (30 minutes after kickoff): with no goal, the slide costs about 8¢ by the 30th minute. The time close takes that small loss instead of waiting while it grows.
• Stop-loss (−40% after kickoff): an underdog goal takes a 56¢ entry to about 26¢, past the 40% stop at about 34¢. The stop sells at the best price below it with buyers for the whole position, and protects against a second goal.

How do you pick the favourite with a bot?

OddsFantasy presets choose a side, not "the favourite", so the entry uses two market rows: Home Yes and Away Yes, both with the same odds window of 1.50 to 1.90 (53¢ to 67¢). In a three-way market (home, draw, away) only one team can be priced in that window, so the bot always buys the favourite and never both sides.

The window keeps out heavy favourites (below 1.50) whose price can't jump much on a goal, and near-coin-flips (above 1.90) where there's no clear favourite.

The strategy settings

Entry

• Market 1: Regular Time · Money Line · Home · Yes
• Market 2: Regular Time · Money Line · Away · Yes
• Odds: Between 1.50 and 1.90
• Spread: Below 0.05
• Volume traded: Above $100
• Liquidity: Above $100
• Market structure: Off
• Stake: $5 per match

Schedule

• Starts: 45 minutes before kickoff
• Checks: Every 5 minutes
• Stops: 5 minutes before kickoff (Run in live off)

Exit

• Momentum exit (live): Price +15% within seconds, spread at 0.05 or less for 10 seconds
• Time close (live): 30 minutes after kickoff
• Stop-loss: Sells at −40%, market order, spread at 0.05 or less for 10 seconds, after kickoff
• Merge hedged positions: On

Option 1: build it yourself

1. Open the trading terminal and turn on semi-auto entries with the switch next to Sort by.
2. Sort by Volume and tick the football matches you want to trade. Leagues with clear favourites work best.
3. Click the robot button to open Auto entries, then Create or update a preset.
4. On Market, name the preset Favourite First Goal and choose Regular Time, Money Line, Home and Yes. Click Add market and set the second row to Away, Yes.
5. On Filters, set odds between 1.5 and 1.9, spread below 0.05, volume above 100 and liquidity above 100.
6. On Execution, set the stake to $5 and switch the market structure filters off (Bullish and Neutral start switched on).
7. Review and Save preset.
8. Go to Positions → Auto exits → Create or update a preset. Name it and link it to the Favourite First Goal entry preset.
9. On Risk, switch on Close at max drawdown: 40%, market order, maximum spread 0.05 for 00:10, with Live on.
10. On Pre-match, switch off Limit close (it starts on). On Live, switch off Limit close, switch on Time close at 30:00 and Momentum exit at 15% with a 0.05 spread and 00:10 wait, and keep Merge hedged positions after kickoff on.
11. Save, then Run a preset and Start monitor.
12. Back in Auto entries, choose Run or schedule a preset, pick Favourite First Goal and Preview matches. Click Add all previewed matches: the schedule re-checks each one on every refresh, including the ones that don't pass yet.
13. On Timing, start 00:45:00 before kickoff, stop 05:00 before kickoff, refresh every 05:00, and leave Run in live unticked.
14. Confirm and Start schedule.

Option 2: load the strategy file

The strategy file holds the entry preset, the exit preset and the schedule in one download.

1. Download the strategy file from this page, or click Open in OddsFantasy to load it directly.
2. Turn on semi-auto entries and tick your matches.
3. Open Auto entries → Run or schedule a preset → Upload strategy file.
4. OddsFantasy saves both presets, loads the schedule, previews your matches and takes you to Confirm with the matches that pass right now. Click Add all previewed matches to include the rest as pending (if none pass yet, the upload adds them all for you); pending matches are re-checked before entry. The auto exit is set to start with the schedule.
5. Click Start schedule.

The exits work the same way on any trade: the Polymarket stop-loss guide covers how stops sell when a goal jumps the price. For other first-goal trades, see the BTTS strategy and the back the draw strategy.

Trade responsibly

Only stake what you can afford, and check that Polymarket is available where you live.