Double Chance Betting Strategy: Favourite or Draw on Polymarket

A double chance bet covers two of the three results of a football match. The favourite or a draw is the classic one, and on Polymarket it's simply No on the underdog's win. It wins about four times in five and pays about 19 cents a share, so one loss takes the profit from about four wins. This double chance betting strategy buys it before kickoff, holds it through the scares to the final whistle, and sells through a 50% stop-loss only when the underdog leads late. This guide explains the bet from zero, walks through two real Polymarket matches, and shows how to run it as a preset in OddsFantasy.

What does double chance mean?

A match result market is a bet on who wins a football match, in regular time; OddsFantasy calls it the Money Line. The favourite is the team the market expects to win, the underdog is the other one. A double chance covers two of the three results: home or draw (1X), away or draw (X2), or either team (12).

Polymarket has no double chance market, and it doesn't need one. Each match has a home win, a draw and an away win market, each with a Yes and a No. No on the underdog's win pays $1 if the favourite wins or if it's a draw: that's the favourite-or-draw double chance. (The other two: No on the favourite is the lay the favourite bet, and No on the draw is lay the draw.)

Is double chance a safe bet?

It wins often, but it isn't safe. Across 2,357 Polymarket matches from August to October 2026 with the underdog at 12.5-25¢ before kickoff, its No cost 80.8¢ on average and won 81.5% of the time: 56.7% favourite wins and 24.8% draws. That's a fair price.

The money is lopsided: about +19¢ a share when it wins, −81¢ when it loses. One loss takes the profit from about four wins, so keep the stake small and the same every time.

What do goals do to it?

• Kickoff: 80.5¢
• 0-0 at half-time: 81.5¢
• 0-0 at 75': 86¢
• Favourite goal at 10': 91.5¢
• Underdog goal at 10': 62¢

An underdog goal knocks it down, but it isn't the end. The underdog led at some point in about a third of these matches (34.8%), and only won about half of those (47.9%). That's why this preset holds instead of selling the scare.

A real example: Liverpool v Atlético Madrid

On 9 September 2026 Liverpool played Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. Real Polymarket trades on Atlético's No (Liverpool or a draw):

• Before kickoff: 79¢.
• 17th minute, Atlético score: 62¢, then 58¢. The 50% stop, near 40¢, is never close.
• 40th minute, Liverpool equalise: 76¢.
• 50th minute, 2-1 Liverpool: 95¢.
• Full time: every share paid $1, 21¢ more than it cost.

The upset: Brighton v Arsenal

On 19 September 2026 Brighton played Arsenal in the Premier League. Brighton's No cost 82¢. Brighton scored after half an hour (59¢, still above the stop), then again just before half-time, which took it to about 30¢, past the 50% stop, so the bot sold there. Brighton won 3-0.

The double chance preset

Entry

• Market: Regular Time · Money Line · Home No and Away No · the odds window picks the underdog's No
• Odds: between 1.14 and 1.33 (88¢-75¢) · the normal range for this bet
• Spread: below 0.02 · there's only about 19¢ a share to win
• Volume / liquidity: above $1,000 / above $100 · real books only
• Stake: $5 · one loss ≈ four wins

Exit

• Close at max drawdown: 50%, market order, spread ≤ 0.05 for 10 s, live · a late underdog lead
• Other exits: off; Merge hedged positions on · hold to the final whistle

Schedule

• Window: 60 to 5 min before kickoff, every 5 min, Run in live off · the pre-match price

After the match, the exit monitor redeems the winning shares automatically once the market settles. Holding and redeeming has no trading fee.

Build it yourself in OddsFantasy

1. Open the trading terminal, switch on semi-auto entries, sort by volume and tick your matches.
2. Auto entries → Create or update a preset: Favourite or Draw, Regular Time, Money Line, Home, No. Then Add market: Away, No.
3. Filters: odds between 1.14 and 1.33, spread below 0.02, volume above 1,000, liquidity above 100. Execution: stake $5, market structure off. Save.
4. Positions → Auto exits → Create or update a preset, same name, linked to the entry preset. On Risk, Close at max drawdown at 50%, Live on, market order, spread 0.05 for 10 seconds. Leave the other exits off, switch on Merge hedged positions, save, then Run a preset → Start monitor.
5. Run or schedule a preset, pick it, preview and Add all previewed matches: matches that don't pass yet stay pending and are re-checked on every refresh.
6. Timing: start 60 minutes before kickoff, stop 5 minutes before, refresh every 5 minutes, Run in live off. Confirm and Start schedule.

Or load the strategy file

Download the strategy file on this page, then Run or schedule a preset → Upload strategy file. It lands on Confirm, with matches that don't pass yet added as pending. Click Start schedule.

Which matches suit the double chance?

The prices are fair, so the matches you tick are your edge. What a trader looks for:

• a strong favourite at home;
• an underdog that struggles to score away.

What to skip: derbies, where the form book goes out of the window.

Common mistakes

Selling after the underdog scores. At Liverpool the No was worth 58¢ after Atlético's goal, and a full dollar at the final whistle.

A big stake because it feels safe. One full loss takes the profit from about four wins.

Ticking every match. Fair prices mean your edge is in the choice.

More in this series

Part of the match result presets series: back and lay the favourite, the underdog and the draw. See the lay the favourite strategy, the underdog betting strategy and the back the favourite strategy.

Trade responsibly

Prediction markets carry real risk: a share can go to zero. Only stake what you can afford to lose, you must be 18 or over, and check that Polymarket is available where you live.